A new model has been published in The Lancet Digital Health: A prognostic model for use before elective surgery to estimate the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (GSU-Pulmonary Score): a development and validation study in three international cohorts

The publication can be read here: The Lancet Digital Health, Volume 6, Issue 7, 2024,

The GSU-Pulmonary Score is a novel prognostic risk score that aims to estimate the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications in adults undergoing elective surgery, based on ten preoperative variables routinely accessible in preoperative settings. It was developed as a collaboration between the NIHR Global Surgery Unit, STARSurg Collaboration and HDRUK, the UK’s foremost health data science research network.

The model was derived from a prospective international dataset of 86 231 patients from the SURG-Week study, and discrimination and calibration were explored in two external prospective datasets of 37 281 patients in total (STARSurg: RECON, and CovidSurg-Cancer). It can now be implemented in individual risk assessment for patient prioritisation and resource management during the ongoing COVID-19 recovery period. It will support front-line clinicians and policy makers to safely scale capacity for elective surgery to address growing waiting lists around the world.

The live model is available at: https://surgicalrisk.app/

We would like to thanks all collaborators involved in this project, and we hope this tool is useful to you in the future!